“ Mishy vaovao ?”, ovvero “ci sono novità?”. Questo è l'incipit tipico di una conversazione malgascia. Di solito si risponde “ Tsi mishy vaovao ”, nessuna novità, e quindi tutto va bene. Stamattina invece Delphin has responded with a different phrase, which sparked a bit 'of a stir in the meeting. He laughs, but this does not mean much, here the news is worse say still laughing. In fact, then Stephen, who is responsible for translating the meetings between Italian and Madagascar, he explains that Delphin said there are new, and are not good.
These days we are engaged in a seminar of the network of associations with which we work here in Fianarantsoa. Long sessions around a table, Italian and Malagasy, to make assessments about current projects and future collaborations, from morning until dark. Then every now and then pauses, Delphin check out the latest news on the political crisis, and we talk together. In recent days, more or less since I left (that timing!) there has been a sharp escalation of the crisis, after several weeks of stalemate. In the capital there is a situation of chaos, as I could see myself. Tuesday, during my first day at left, the chief of staff, has given an ultimatum to Andry and Ravalomanana to reach agreement within 72 hours, otherwise the army would take power. As the hypothesis would look left, it was actually frowned upon by many Malagasy. The army in fact, even amid heated internal discussions, it appeared as a neutral force, and here we all still remember the last time the military seized power in the 70s. "C'etait interessant! "said Delphin, and was one of the more free the country, with a less corrupt government.
neutralist hypothesis however has passed away just yesterday, not even 24 hours after he launched the ultimatum, the chief of staff was dismissed following a decision by a group of generals, who then appointed their chief of state higher, chosen from the general pro-Andry. It is made of a mutiny within the military leadership, since according to the constitution, the chief of staff should be appointed by the President of the Republic, and then the dismissal as it was not valid. Anyway, the new chief of staff, it is valid or not, has been said that the ultimatum was canceled.
The bad news is that today, instead of a group of South African mercenaries, hired by President Ravalomanana, have landed at Fort Dauphin and Antananarivo are heading to. The president may have lost the loyalty of the military leadership, but it is still the richest man in Madagascar, master of all media, supermarkets, dairy industries, companies that build roads, of immense estates, and 95% of parliamentarians. Will not give up so easily. The other news, a little 'more smoky and you do not know how true (I have not found confirmation in the press) is that it seems that Israelis Andry is hiring mercenaries and the Netherlands, for now parked at the island of Reunion, for reasons of price negotiations. Meanwhile, with the old chief of staff seems finally waned also suggested to keep the army neutral. The leadership chose Andry, which then seems to be currently in the lead. But the army is with them all? And at what price will win the last resistance?
In planning the trip to Madagascar, Delphin had told me about the political crisis that the visit was an opportunity to see and discuss these aspects of the country, as indeed we are doing. "So you see with your eyes, and managed to get an idea." So far, in fact I could only add dubbi e domande alla lunga lista che avevo già prima di partire. Una notizia accertata è che fra i manifestanti pro-Andry ce ne sono diversi (almeno gli organizzatori e i capi-popolo) che sono pagati per farlo. Con quali soldi? Anche Andry è ricco, ma difficilmente può sostenere tutto quel movimento solo con soldi suoi. L'ipotesi che molti fanno è sia sostenuto da soldi dell'ambasciata francese, così come anche il presidente Ravalomanana. Vorrebbe dire che i francesi stanno di fatto incitando al conflitto, con finanziamenti passati sottobanco, assicurandosi così influenza sul paese chiunque vinca, e assicurandosi anche che il paese eviti di svilupparsi democraticamente. Ma mi sembra una spiegazione più che altro di abitudinaria dietrologia post-colonial. I'm afraid the reality is more complicated (not necessarily better), and are hard to reveal.
Another news is that it seems very based on the one hand loyalists have infiltrated the criminals and provocateurs among the demonstrators, to create chaos and fomenting pillages discredit, and, second, symmetrically, the heads demonstrators have paid some policemen to shoot a bit 'random, and thus discredit the police. One of them died of the manifestation of Fianarantsoa last week it was a poor man who cleaned public toilets, and was there by chance. The policeman who shot him, well known in the city, has focused so seemingly inexplicable, as it was several meters away from the flow of the demonstrators. In the city that police say is a close friend of the leaders of the protesters, who wanted so give way to the TGV of scandal at the government.
I am reminded of the old journalistic said that the first victim in the conflict, is always the truth. And even in this case is really difficult to distinguish the voices from the news, urban myths from the facts. I fear that what is really happening in the corridors of power in Antananarivo, we do not know at all. The only thing that seems clear is that the clash came at a crucial point, that the two sides are arming themselves, and that the army is split, with the mutineers who seem to have taken over, and loyalists who do not yet know how much they weigh and how they will react. In putting together these few observations, the country really seems about to slip from the "disorder" to present a true civil war. I'm beginning to wonder if it is not appropriate to consider in advance the return to Italy. The last time I changed the system, seven years ago, one of the first infrastructure to jump was one of the bridges of the National Route 9 that connects to Fiana Tana, now rebuilt with EU funds as the "Pont de la solidarité. Stuck here, if repeated a similar event would be a problem. I speak with other Italian and sono al seminario, i dubbi sono comuni.
Al tempo stesso, però, ci troviamo in un contesto che è quasi sempre stridente, in modo perfino surreale, rispetto alle notizie allarmistiche che discutiamo a intervalli regolari. È questo l'aspetto che stempera l'ansia e ridimensiona tutto, ma è anche il più difficile da raccontare. Non si tratta solo del fatto che, ad essere pragmatici, non abbiamo davvero passato neanche un momento di pur minima tensione, e abbiamo sempre continuato a lavorare, muoverci, scherzare e comunicare normalmente, in una città tranquilla. Ci sono anche tanti aspetti più intangibili che contribuiscono, in modo più o meno consapevole, a comporre l'aria che si respira. Come ad esempio le facce dei militari. A Kinshasa, durante entrambi i miei viaggi precedenti, non credo di averne mai visto uno sorridere. Qui invece scherzano e guardano le donne che passano in strada, come dei militari di leva in libera uscita. Non danno l'idea di ragazzi che pensano di potersi ritrovare in guerra da un giorno all'altro. La crisi politica è un argomento di conversazione sulla bocca di tutti, e fra i malgasci mi sembra di percepire anche un certo gusto paesano a enfatizzare le notizie al di là della loro effettiva portata, a fare autoironia, a prendere in giro il grande capo malgrado sia potente e faccia spavento. Tutti aspetti che, con le dovute proporzioni, da italiano mi suonano abbastanza familiari. Con i congolesi era tutto radicalmente diverso: erano (Are) a blob of different people, traumatized by too many tragedies, ancient and recent, and reporting on more serious things happening more than anything through all that was said not. In all this time spent in Kinshasa, I never heard anyone do irony on Kabila. The latest political clashes in March 2007, not occurred between protesters and police as here, but between the two armies of the two leaders' personal war, a cannon shot in the city center: 700 soldiers killed or missing in less than three days. The Congolese political allegiances follow strictly ethnic patterns, marked by divisions of language and culture as well as geographical origin. In some cases there were recent stories of atrocities and blood among different peoples, and it will take decades to remedy them. Here in Madagascar there are 18 tribes, but all more or less speak the same language, are often mixed because of migration inside, they drink beer together, and are transversely through the political division between the two current contenders TIM and TGV. So, as I understand it in these few days, the conflict is more a clash of power groups, involving the oligarchs and their entourages, down to local officials, but not really move the masses, who watch the everything with a detached and cynical sarcasm.
I have no idea how to evolve the crisis: there are many grim news, and there is a people apparently jovial and serene but also gave evidence of being capable of bursts of unexpected violence. To be sure, however, there is at least the Malagasy context is completely different than those that led to the terrible wars of the last 15 years in sub-Saharan Africa. For us Europeans, who tend to see Africa as a single blurred cauldron, that's something important to learn.
